Last year I asked a group of AR bloggers and the readers of Games Alfresco and Augmented Times to guess what 2010 holds for augmented reality. You can see them all here. A year has passed, and 2011 is just around the corner, it’s time to confront reality and check how prescient were we. Remember, this post is not about making fun of some or praise others. Actually, most of our predictions were incorrect, but at least we are not shy about them.
Top three accurate predictions
- “The first cross-browser cross-platform AR content will start to appear” – Thomas Wrobel was spot on with this prediction.
- “Commercial AR will continue to be dominated by startups and small companies.” – There’s a reason why is now Layar’s AR strategist
- “10x total investments in AR start ups over 2009” (Ori Inbar). Well, close enough, thanks to Layar and Tonchidot.
Top three inaccurate predictions
- “Apple’s tablet will take AR to the next level with object recognition and a wider screen to view the world. ” – Tom Carpenter would later pen one of the most read posts on Games Alfresco – “Apple’s iPad Camera Fail“.
- “A big social discussion will be triggered when google launches their HMD device connected to Android. People will form strikes and rallies against technology addiction.” (Toby Kammann) – I must have missed that. To be fair, Toby did preface his predictions saying he’s pessimistic about HMD going on sale this year.
- “I see either Layar buying Wikitude or Wikitude buying Layar. Either way I don’t see their being 2 main browsers at the end of 2010.” (Lester Madden) – Though many AR browsers have come and gone, Wikitude, Layar, Junaio and Sekai Camera are still playing strong. Anyhow, it’s not like I was much more accurate, guessing that Microsoft will buy Wikitude.
So, what are your predictions for 2011?
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Games Alfresco 
I’m surprised that the access iPhone camera didn’t make a larger impact this year. We all seemed to be eagerly awaiting it and when it came no one really made us of it.
[…] ideas for 2011 regarding AR, I’ll just link to a short quora thread and point to metaio and Ori’s and Rouli’s summary on 2010 predictions and their fulfillment (part 8 contains my augmented.org predictions […]
I dont think anyone could predict a “large iPod touch” NOT having a camera. That was a very cynical move by Apple, and completely unpredictable imho.
it was a cynical move, but not unpredictable. it’s not like the first time they omitted a must-have feature, just to make you buy the next version once it’s out (3g – i’m looking at you!)