Governator vs. Chancellator Play Augmented Reality at Cebit

Posted on March 3, 2009 by Ori Inbar

You got to see this to believe it:

California-Governor-Arnold -Schwarzenegger and German-Chancellor-Angela-Merkel jointly holding a Lego-digital box-by-Metaio.

In the back, a mirror screen featuring an augmented version of California-Governor-Arnold-Schwarzenegger and German-Chancellor-Angela-Merkel holding the Lego-digital-box-by-Metaio, with an exploded view of the assembled Lego toy.

This must have been the highest concentration of top-rank political figures in a single augmented reality scene – ever to be captured on (digital) film.

I have covered the Digial Lego Box when it was fresh news – now see it in video (in German) on the Cebit site.

Next political AR picture challenge:

capture Obama holding hands with Putin while watching an augmented view of a peaceful Afghanistan.

Thanks Jan Schlink for sharing!

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“I Think the Graphics of a Punch”

Posted on March 1, 2009 by Ori Inbar

Predicted Mr. Yamazaki during this week’s Augmented Reality panel at the IT Business Pro conference in Tokyo.

The panelists were (from left):

Tsunoda Tetsuya  from AR Lab Asuka – about content production, NEC’s Yamasaki Zyuniti MAGUNASUKOMYUNIKESHONZU about application development for mobile phones, AR DNP (DNP) Goro Nomotai, Mr. Hamano Satoshi of Japan about application development, and panel Chair  Takebe Keniti from Nikkei Communications about the theory of media arts

The panel chair Takebe started with an introduction to the advancements in AR technology.

He continued with examples of applications possible Today: (1) in construction of health care, (2) navigate catalogs, and, (3) communication, social understanding and relationship building using “social AR”

The panel discussion revolved around the business challenges and expectations from this new technology and highlighted the important roles of GPS and mobile phones in its future.

Japanese applications using AR such as the Sekai Camera were brought as current examples.

The panel went on a tangent and mused about an AR scenario that could take place in the very panel discussion they were all part of.

What if we used face recognition software to overlay text on a screen in front of the panel members, that would reveal to us relevant information about individuals in the audience?

That thought triggered a concern about the implications of AR on social ethics,  which evolved into a full blown discussions about the issues surrounding AR: low public awareness, hardware complexity, software scalability, security, etc.

The undisputed climax arrived when Mr. Yamakazi summarized the future of AR with his prediction “I Think the Graphics of a Punch!”


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ISMAR 2009: The World’s Best Augmented Reality Event Wants You to Contribute!

Posted on February 23, 2009 by Ori Inbar

This post is directed at you. Yes – you: the augmented reality aficionado.

For those who followed my coverage of ISMAR 2008 – prepare to be blown away by ISMAR 2009.

ismar-2009-wants-you

If you are an AR researcher – ISMAR 2009 is as always the best event to learn about the latest and greatest in AR technology.

If you work in the AR industry – congratulations! Unlike previous years – at ISMAR 2009 you’ll see AR breaking out into commercial success.

If you work in interactive entertainment – come to ISMAR 2009 to experience the phenomen that will revolutionize interactive entertainment forever.

If you are an artist – at ISMAR 2009 you’ll have an opportunity to join this emerging industry and change the way people experience the world, literally.

Interested? Good.

Because all of the above will only transpire – if YOU contribute.

ISMAR 2009 is now officially calling for proposals.

Here are excerpts from the call for proposals. For details check out the official call.

The veteran Science and Technology track will be complemented this year with new Arts, Media and Humanities tracks. ISMAR 2009 will introduce expanded Tutorials, Workshops, Demonstrations and Competitions.

Topics of the Technical Track:

• Sensing – Tracking technologies, calibration methods, sensor fusion, vision-based registration and tracking, acquisition of 3D scene descriptions
• Information presentation – Object overlay and spatial layout techniques, handling of occlusions or x-ray vision, photorealistic augmentation, real-time augmentation, optical display technologies (HWDs, HMDs, HUDs, mobile projectors), aural or haptic augmentation, combined presentation across several displays (combining mobile and stationary devices), display and view management
• User interaction – Interaction techniques and metaphors for MR/AR, collaborative MR/AR, multimodal input and output, tangible interaction, combined interaction with virtual and real objects
• Human factors – Usability studies and experiments of MR/AR-based interaction and presentation concepts, acceptance of MR/AR technology, social implications
• System architecture – Wearable and mobile computing, distributed and collaborative MR/AR, display hardware, performance issues (real-time approaches), embedded computing for MR/AR, integration of MR/AR technologies into wide-area pervasive computing environments
• MR/AR applications – across all areas of personal and professional activities, such as: Personal MR/AR information systems, games, applications in industry, military, medicine, science, entertainment, architecture, tourism, art, cultural heritage, education, training etc.

Topics of the Arts, Media & Humanities Tracks:

Compelling applications of Mixed & Augmented Reality. Applications include artistic expression, experiential-media or interpretive pieces that reflect the study of the human condition.
• Art – The Art program is looking for notable artists that have stretched the boundaries of expression with the use of Mixed and Augmented Reality.  The creative interaction between real, virtual and the imaginary realities to create provoking experiences are highly encouraged.  Written papers and posters are to include position statement with notes and images on approach, implementation and the technology used.  A gallery show will be mounted to support physical entries (see call for demonstrations).
• Media – submissions from media practitioners who have stretched the boundaries of the creative impact of Mixed and Augmented Reality.  This venue seeks innovative uses of creative techniques for communication and entertainment to enhance the experience of MR/AR through novel applications of head-mounted, embedded projection, or mobile displays.  Submissions may include new tools, conventions or taxonomies for developing these new media.
• Humanities – academic submissions that relate to Mixed and Augmented Reality content that allows for innovative analytical, critical or speculative approaches to reflect the study of the human condition. and digital media.

Call for Innovation Workshops

ISMAR 2009 will have a series of workshops the day before the conference (Monday) to cover the innovative application of Mixed and Augmented Reality to specific industry domains.  Three workshops have been defined.  We invite you to submit papers or panel discussions that will address topics of transferring MR/AR to solve critical real world problems (see web site for details).  If your paper or panel does not fit the existing workshop, you may submit a proposal for a new workshop.
• Designing the Future (Design and Manufacturing Workshop):  This workshop will continue the ISMAR legacy of showcasing the pioneering efforts of the auto and other industries’ use of Mixed and Augmented Reality as design tools.
• Falling in Love with Learning (Entertainment & Education Workshop):  Entertainment and Education converge in Mixed Reality Experiential Learning Landscapes for museums, libraries, schools and parks.
• Transforming Lives (Medical and Military Training Workshop):  Extreme Mixed Reality needs to meet high-risk, high-performance training to enhance human preparation for life and death scenarios.

Call for Pioneering Tutorials

To mark ten years of ISMAR, the 2009 conference will include a three-day comprehensive tutorial program that covers a wide spectrum of topics in Mixed and Augmented Reality.  We are looking for submissions from pioneers to share their experiences and insights.  Formats can be from 30 to 90 minutes.  These tutorials will be video captured and distributed as a series along with special features covering the work of pioneering laboratories worldwide.

Call for Demonstrations

There will be four formats to submit demonstrations.  Demonstrations can be related to papers, posters or panels, but that is not required.  A proposed abstract, floor plan and list of requirements are requested with the letter of intent (see websites for details).  Accepted Participants will receive notification by June 30th, 2009 to start coordination with the ISMAR 2009 Planning Committee.  To accommodate late breaking discoveries, we will accept “Laboratory Demonstrations” until the last minute, pending committee discretion and conference  accommodations (submissions received after August 15th, 2009 will not be included in the publications). Letters of intent are recommended for all submissions to assist in the planning.
• Laboratory Demonstrations will provide the opportunity for “late breaking” research teams to informally demonstrate their latest inventions and allow for interaction with attendees and other pioneers.
• Research Showcase will be a more formal presentation of innovative Mixed and Augmented Reality content that involve more production support and exhibit design considerations.
• Art Gallery will present innovative Mixed and Augmented Reality artwork within a unique gallery format based on a combination of invited and submitted work.
• Innovation Exhibitions (See industry/Sponsor relations) will feature the latest commercially available products and services for use in Mixed and Augmented Reality applications.  The exhibition will be available for rental to industry buyers from the entertainment, medical, military and educational markets.  A special “Start-up Park” will be available for small, first time commercial exhibitors at more affordable prices.  Early registration is recommended for the expected increased participation and limited space.

Tracking Competition

The first event of this kind at ISMAR 08 (http://ismar08.org/wiki/doku.php?id=program-competition) caught much attention. A sequel will be organized at ISMAR 2009. Details regarding the tracking task and the rules of competition will be made available on the web site. It is to be expected that only a limited number of teams can participate.

***********************

Don’t be wary.

Even if you do not have a rigorous research paper – you still have an important role in ISMAR 2009.

If you have developed a cool AR tool, app or game, or –

if you have conceptualized an interesting AR idea, or even-

if you just had a vision of the killer AR app  – we want to hear from you!

Don’t wait for the May 16th deadline – you can’t afford to. Submit your proposal today.

**********************

Send your proposals to:

Gudrun Klinker, Blair MacIntyre and Hideo Saito

Science and Technology Program Chairs (Science@ismar09.org)

Blair MacIntyre

Art and Humanities Program Co-Chair (Humanities@ismar09.org, Art@ismar09.org)

Jay Bolter

Humanities Program Chair (Humanities@ismar09.org)

Jarrell Pair

Media Program Chair (Media@ismar09.org)

Charlie Hughes

Tutorial Chair (tutorials@ismar09.org)

Christian Sandor

Laboratory Demonstration Chair (Demos@ismar09.org)

Sean White,

Research Showcase Chair (Showcase@ismar09.org)

Larry Davis

Innovation Exhibition Chair (Exhibits@ismar09.org)

Christopher Stapleton

Interim Workshop Chair (Workshops@ismar09.org)

Daniel Pustka

Tracking Contest Chair (Tracking@ismar09.org)

We want to hear from you!

As a member of ISMAR’s Media track committee – I hereby vow to emphatically review every single proposal in the media track. Your voice must be heard.

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Live From WARM ’09: Keynote – Projection Over Four Orders of Magnitude

Posted on February 12, 2009 by Ori Inbar

Oliver Bimber (Bauhaus University – Weimar) one of the world’s leaders is spatial augmented reality kicks off with barb: “unlike other sessions, this session is NOT about mobile augmented reality but rather – spatial (projected) augmented reality. Welcome  to the wonderful world of Oliver Bimber.
He projects visuals on every day surfaces, by using structured light and camera feedback.
Oliver amazes by demonstrating a projection on…a glass of wine – using inverted lighting.
Adaptive photometric: Have you ever seen Shrek projected on a stone wall? Oliver makes it look easy with a smooth resulting image.
Another demonstration shows how you can record footage that would usually require a green screen – in the scene itself, with no need to go to a dedicated studio.
Oliver keeps going with Reverse Radiosity and Multi Focal Projection. You have to see it (because I can’t put it in words…)

On to more applications: visualization of radiological images – x ray film, diagnostic monitors, and high quality paper prints – aren’t optimal for diagnostics because of its low contrast.
Super Imposing Dynamic Range (demonstrated at ISMAR ’08.) offers 6 times higher contrast than x ray film.
Radiologists have confirmed that this technique does better than existing techniques.
Another application is for Light Microscopy. Contrast is a problem is shiny surfaces in operations or manufacturing scenarios. Oliver shows a prototype of projected light microscopy – with a size of 2 micro meters that increases the contrast by a factor of 5 and removes the background noise on a more uniform illumination – and this is just the beginning.  This is important for applications of image analysis.

Now why the mysterious title?
Simply because with Oliver’s techniques, contrast is improved by 4 orders of magnitude…

Question from the audience – why not use laser projectors?
Oliver responds that the issue is not within the projector but mostly on the surface – so even with laser projectors you’ll need the compensation discussed.

After lunch – demos!

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Live From WARM ’09: The World’s Best Winter Augmented Reality Event

Posted on February 12, 2009 by Ori Inbar

Welcome to WARM 2009, where augmented reality eggheads from both sides of the Danube meet for 2 days to share ideas and collaborate.

It’s the 4th year WARM is taking place – always in Graz university, and always in February – to provide an excuse for a skiing event, once the big ideas are taken in. Hence the cunning logo:

This year 54 attendees from 16 different organizations in 5 countries are expected (Austria, Germany Switzerland, England and the US). The agenda is jam-packed with XX sessions, Lab demos and a keynote by Oliver Bimber. I have the unenviable pleasure of speaking last.

It’s 10 am. Lights are off. Spotlight on Dieter Schmalstieg, the master host, taking the stage to welcome everybody.
He admits, the event started as a Graz meeting and just happened because guests kept coming.

Daniel Wagner, the eternal master of ceremony of WARM, introduces Simon Hay from Cambridge (Tom Drummond group) the first speaker in the Computer Vision session. Simon will talk about “Repeatability experiments  for interest point location and orientation assignment”  – an improvement in feature based matching for the rest of us…

The basic idea: detect interest regions in canonical parameters.
Use, known parameters that come through Ferns, PhonySift, Sit Mops, and MSERs searches,
and accelerate and improve the search with location detectors and orientation assignments.

After a very convincing set of graphs, Simon concludes by confirming Harris and FAST give reasonable performance and gradient orientation assignment works better than expected.

Next talk is by Qi Pan (from the same Cambridge group) about “Real time interactive 3D reconstruction.”

From the abstract:
“High quality 3D reconstruction algorithms currently require an input sequence of images or video which is then processed offline for a lengthy time. After the process is complete, the reconstruction is viewed by the user to confirm the algorithm has modelled the input sequence successfully. Often certain parts of the reconstructed model may be inaccurate or sections may be missing due to insufficient coverage or occlusion in the input sequence. In these cases, a new input sequence needs to be obtained and the whole process repeated.
The aim of the project is to produce a real-time modelling system using the  key frame approach which provides immediate feedback about the quality of the input sequence. This enables the system to guide the user to provide additional views for reconstruction, yielding a complete model without having to collect a new input sequence.”

Couldn’t resist pointing out the psychological sounding algorithms (and my ignorance) Qi uses such as Epipolar Geometry and PROSAC, reconstructing Delauney Triangulation followed by probabilistic Tetrahedral carving. You got to love these terms.

The result is pretty good, though still noisy – so stay tuned for future results of Qi’s research.

Third talk is by Vincent Lepetit from Computer Vision Lab from the Swiss CV Lab at EPFL.
Vincent starts with a recap of Keypoint recognition: Train the system to recognize keypoints of an object.
Vincent then demonstrates works leveraging this technique: an awarded work by Camille Scherrer “Le monde des montagnes” a beautiful augmented book, and a demo by Total Immersion targeted for advertising.

Now, on to the new research dubbed Generic Trees. The motivation is to speed up the training phase and to scale.
A comparison results shows it’s 35% faster. To prove, he shows a video of a SLAM application.
Generic Trees method is used by Willow Garages for autonomous robotics – which is implementing Open CV.

Next, he shows recognizing camera pose with 6 degrees of freedom (DOF) based on a single feature point (selected by the user). Impressive.

That’s a wrap of the brainy Computer Vision session. Next is Oliver Bimber’s keynote.

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Must See at the 2009 Consumer Electronics Show

Posted on January 6, 2009 by Ori Inbar

CES starts tomorrow.

It always delivers a gadget-splashy kick-off for the year. If you are there in person, or following virtually (like I do) – you will want to check out these events:

Wow!

Sad to say, it’s not the next AR goggles…it’s  for shooting underwater HD video…

But there’s more.

TN Games

Wear this helmet from TN Games and when they shoot you (in a game) – you’ll  feel the wonderful sensation of actually getting hit in the head. Now, try it on a street while playing an augmented reality style laser tag. You may feel cool – but you’ll still look dorky.

To complete the awkward look, don’t miss the matching game vest and you’ll feel the shots and blasts on your torso.

PrimeSense

Prime Sense, an exhibitor in CES 2009, makes “video games more immersive and fun to play by allowing users to play naturally using body movements and gestures”.

Though unique in its technology, Prime Sense is not the only company that offers body game play. A handful of companies compete on that niche – somewhere between the Wii and augmented reality games.

Lunch@Piero’s – with Total Immersion

Total Immersion is sure to deliver a great augmented reality tour de force this CES. They are the best at demonstrating AR today. This year, though, they left the keynote stage and went for lunch at Piero’s. January 8-9, 2009 — 11:30 am to 2:00 pm press demonstration only.

Kids at play conference

I have argued before we first need to get the next generation hooked on AR. The conference within conference, Kids@Play, will provide some of the ingredients needed to do it right.

What will you look for at CES 2009?


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Augmented Reality Predictions for 2009

Posted on January 1, 2009 by Ori Inbar

Happy New 2009!

What’s in store for us in 2009?

As usual, CES 2009 will  kickoff  the AR year with a glitz. Expect to see new AR devices unveiled: new Intel MIDs, mobile devices powered for the first time by the promising chips: Texas Instruments OMAP3 and NVidia’s Tegra .

And we are most likely to meet the first a cool looking AR goggles – from Vuzix.

What else to expect in 2009?

We will see consumer AR apps selling for the first time, AR games played by cellphone owners, and the AR Market  doubling in size.

And not to forget – ISMAR 2009 – the world’s most important Augmented Reality event, will mark the first year where the show expands beyond the engineering department. In October 2009 ISMAR will make a foray into art, , experience, entertainment, and business – all key building blocks of the future AR industry. Orlando will host this year the most ambitious ISMAR yet to be planned. To join the effort contact Chris Stapleton.

2009 is posed to be the year where AR breaks from the lab and gets in the hands of consumers which will change the way we experience the world –  forever.

What do you expect from 2009?

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Wrap up 2008: Your Greatest Augmented Reality Moments

Posted on December 27, 2008 by Ori Inbar

Top 10 AR milestones in 2008 was one of the most popular posts this year. What came out of it was even more gratifying: a multitude of reflections, impressions, and thoughts I received about your own AR moments, including some last minute finds.

Here is an anecdotal collection of your greatest AR moments in 2008:

1. The Most fundamental AR milestone in 2008

Oriel Bergig: During 2008 we have seen some major advances in the field of Augmented Reality. Porting AR technology to mobile devices and especially cellular phones creates an opportunity to reach millions of users. For several years, the biggest AR labs and companies have made huge steps in this direction. In 2008 these efforts have started to show results. Pose estimation has been upgraded with the StbTracker release in the end of 2007. Research focusing on better user experience, and in particular on making mobile AR technology accessible to people with no special training, is being conducted by the best minds of the HitLabNZ. During one of the top covered events of the year, CES2008, Intel’s CEO Paul Otellini demonstrated Total Immersion’s technology enabling mobile AR experiences such as urban guidance. To wrap-up, the 2008 most fundamental milestone would be: AR technology is closing up fast on the mass user market.

Charles Woodward: The greatest milestone? Commercial breakthroughs by Metaio and Total  Immersion.

Thomas Wrobel: Wikitude I think. Seems the first released, useful, AR software. Runner up to the AR Geisha doll…

2) The best AR device of the year

Oriel: Since 2008 would most be remembered for its advances in mobile AR technology, the AR device of the year is the mobile phone. Nokia has released the Navigator phone that includes a GPS and an accelerometer, which make a valuable addition. The N95 has been demonstrated as well in many more contexts as a good choice for AR applications.  The next AR device of the year would be the Nokia N97 and of course the iPhone with its huge global success. iPhone feets very well AR applications and a successful attempt to port ARToolKit to iPhone has already been made by ARToolWorks. Appealing applications are next to come but only after the iPhone OS has better support for real time video acquirement.

Charles: Best device? iPhone, and/or Nokia 6210…

Thomas: hmz…tricky. I personally think hardware is still rather lackluster, and I have had little experience with some of the most recently released stuff.
I guess probably the iPhone + G1 devices…while far from ideal, they are at least getting location-aware services, and “barcode scanning” style product information into public hands.

Eric Rice shares what gets him excited about a video comparing between PS2 Eyetoy and PS3 Eye.

Vodpod videos no longer available.

3) Best AR Demo

Oriel: The best demo of 2008 is the demo that will be remembered by most people a decade from now. The demo that reached most of the people in the world is most likely Intel’s CEO Paul Otellini keynote talk during CES2008.

Charles: Haunted Book, Cherrer et al at ISMAR2008 – just beatiful!
(click Interaction on the left menu bar and then Haunted House.)

Thomas: LevelHead [by Julian Oliver], I think. Although this pet demo [ARf] is also nice;
(that may be because I want my own desuke though :p)

Vodpod videos no longer available.

4) Person of the AR year

Charles: Georg Klein – leads the way in anything he touches [single handedly won ISMAR 2008 tracking competition]

Thomas: There’s been so much development by so many individuals and companies I don’t know one specific person.

5) The most significant AR deal of 2008

Charles: Beijing Olympics fake fireworks. About the viewers of the Olympics openning ceremony:”What they did not realise was that what they were watching was in fact computer graphics, meticulously created over a period of months and inserted into the coverage electronically at exactly the right moment. ”

Thomas: Not sure about AR deals as such, but Total Immersion getting offices in the US is a good sign for the company and AR in general.

6) A [Predictable?] disappointment

Gizmondo won’t be coming out this year after all…The Nordik Link has the scoop.

7. Last minute find: A Surprising Simplicity in AR

Anyone can build 3D models with Google’s Sketchup. With the AR Media plugin from Inglobe – anyone can bring it into an augmented reality scene. ArchDaily tried it here.

Thanks for contributors and especially: Charles Woodward, Oriel Bergig, and the always there AR enthusiast: Thomas Wrobel

Bonus: Blair MacIntyre shares his greatest AR moments in 2009 in his blog.

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2008 Wrap up: Top 5 Augmented Reality Holiday Greetings

Posted on December 24, 2008 by Ori Inbar

’tis the season for best wishes, and nothing shows your real feelings better than an augmented reality greeting card.

Here are the top 5 AR holiday greetings of 2008.

5. Happy Holidays from Tellart

Vodpod videos no longer available.

If you want to try it yourself – go to Tellart

Thanks Makezine for sharing.

4. Virtual Santa from Metaio on your iPhone

Download from the App store or see the whole story at Metaio.com

Thanks Jan for sharing.

3. A XMAS card from Special Moves

Try it yourself at specialmoves.com

Vodpod videos no longer available.

Thanks Ian Tait for sharing.

2. Augmented Reality Christmas Cookies

This one was the coolest, but unfortunately the video was removed from youtube by the user.

Just imagine cookies that when viewed through the AR software web cam show 3d objects floating on top…

Thanks ARtweets for sharing.

1. AID DCC and Katamari

Step 1: Print this
Step 2: Go to www09.aid-dcc.com
Step 3: Enjoy

Thanks Digital Stew for uncovering.

***Update***

Total Immersion just came out with their own New Year AR Greeting Card

Funky AR christmas greetings accompanied with latin-rap

***yet another update***

This time a Valentine greetings card by the folks from teh Warehouse

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2008 Wrap Up: If the Augmented Reality Industry Got a Report Card

Posted on December 17, 2008 by Ori Inbar

From the authors of “Top 10 Milestones in Augmented Reality“, here comes a second installment in the 2008 Wrap Up series.

This time, Games Alfresco rates the progress of the Augmented Reality industry in 2008, using some self-invented, non-partisan, and mostly-gloomy key performance indicators.

But don’t be dispirited.

According to the proven 5 stage transition model below, AR has left the “Desperation” stage, and is entering the “Pacification” stage. We are not looking back.

ar-kpi-2008

Here is the 2008 progress report of AR’s 10 key performance indicators:

(for info about mentioned people, products, companies -
refer to the previous post)

1. Public awareness ♣♣♣♣♣♣♣♣♣♣ (2/10)

Yes, the buzz around AR is building, but in an anecdotal survey – none of my acquaintances has ever heard about AR (until I started raving about it)

2. Influencers ♣♣♣♣♣♣♣♣♣♣ (3/10)

Will Wright and Bruce Sterling made headlines on this blog when they highlighted augmented reality as the future of gaming. Otellini (Intel CEO) demoed AR during his CES keynote as the future of mobile. Not bad for a technology no one has heard about.

3. Awards ♣♣♣♣♣♣♣♣♣♣ (5/10)

Wow. 2008 was a year of AR awards and acclaim. From the Nokia Mobile Innovation Challenge Winner through the Crunch50 and Android top 50 finalists – augmented reality was a big winner this year.

4. Online Dialogue ♣♣♣♣♣♣♣♣♣♣ (2/10)

An industry can be measured by the intensity of the online dialog among its constituencies. Apart from one great annual event,  sparse blogs, and a handful of largely passive forums – AR enthusiasts behave like introverts when it comes to tackling major issues online (emails and hallway conversations don’t count…). Despite growing buzz and awards, online AR dialog is dismal.

5. Aesthetics ♣♣♣♣♣♣♣♣♣♣ (2/10)

Aesthetics was not a conspicuous quality of the augmented reality industry this year. Except for a few isolated cases (e.g. LevelHead, Better Than Reality, The Hunted House, Tagged in Motion) AR still looks pretty geeky. Got artists?

6. Hardware ♣♣♣♣♣♣♣♣♣♣ (4/10)

The excuses are over. Powerful, mobile, affordable and cool devices are here and ready to take you on an augmented reality experience. You can leave your backpacks at home. Sure, AR experts are not yet satisfied and are waiting for next year’s gadgeteria – but the potential is palpable – you can almost taste it .

7. Tools and engines ♣♣♣♣♣♣♣♣♣♣ (3/10)

Tools and platforms are the irrigation required to grow a healthy industry. 2008 was marked with more releases of new AR tools and engines than ever before. Not sure how many are being used, though.

8. Applications ♣♣♣♣♣♣♣♣♣♣ (2/10)

Wikitude and Tonchidot hinted at the flavor of what’s in store. The masses are not using such apps yet. Heck, they don’t even believe in their existence…

9. Market Size $$$$$$$$$$ (2/10)

It’s always challenging to estimate the size of a market occupied by mostly small private companies, especially when no analyst firm has picked up the glove. An educated guess would put it at no more than $50M. A miniature industry, for now. One day it will overshadow the gaming, movies, TV, tourism, and the advertising industries.

10. Business models ♣♣♣♣♣♣♣♣♣♣ (1/10)

Non-existent. Unlike AR’s revolutionary technology, the lion’s share of its business models are very traditional: AR companies get paid for delivering projects for clients.

AR has the potential to nurture new business models and growth that will take advantage of its world changing capabilities. What would you pay if we could deliver the world’s information into your personal field of view?

***

Not on the list:
I purposely left out typically important industry indicators such as R&D expenditures, registered patents, published papers, etc.

You may ask why. If you did, here is my reasoning: the AR industry has been very strong on research in the past 10 years but very weak on adoption and commerce. That’s exactly why we should focus on what drives the latter.

***

Despite important milestones reached by the AR industry in 2008, its key performance indicators seem quite somber.

I give it an overall 3/10 (Pacification stage).

But cheer up, keep in mind the kid’s evolving smile (above): the AR industry is in its embryonic stage. Companies in the space are still laying the groundwork for a soon-to-come major leap forward.

After all, in 10 years everyone will use augmented reality, right?

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